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FIRE Calculator

Calculate your FIRE number and how many years until financial independence. See year-by-year projections based on your savings rate and investment returns.

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Your Financial Situation

Your FIRE Target

FIRE Number

$1,250,000

Achievable in 14 years

Years to FIRE

14

Annual Savings

$50,000

Savings Rate

50.0%

Progress to FIRE

$50,000 of $1,250,000 (4.0%)

Year-by-Year Projection

YearContributionsInvestment GrowthTotal SavingsStatus
1$50,000$3,500$103,500
2$50,000$7,245$160,745
3$50,000$11,252$221,997
4$50,000$15,540$287,537
5$50,000$20,128$357,665
6$50,000$25,037$432,701
7$50,000$30,289$512,990
8$50,000$35,909$598,899
9$50,000$41,923$690,822
10$50,000$48,358$789,180
11$50,000$55,243$894,423
12$50,000$62,610$1,007,032
13$50,000$70,492$1,127,524
14$50,000$78,927$1,256,451FIRE
15$50,000$87,952$1,394,403FIRE
16$50,000$97,608$1,542,011FIRE
17$50,000$107,941$1,699,952FIRE
18$50,000$118,997$1,868,948FIRE
19$50,000$130,826$2,049,775FIRE
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How to Use FIRE Calculator

  1. 1

    Enter current savings

    Enter the total amount you currently have saved and invested.

  2. 2

    Set income and expenses

    Enter your annual income and annual expenses to determine your savings rate.

  3. 3

    Set return rate

    Enter your expected annual investment return rate (historically 7-10% for stocks).

  4. 4

    Set withdrawal rate

    Choose your safe withdrawal rate. The standard is 4% per the Trinity Study.

  5. 5

    Review your FIRE plan

    See your FIRE number, years to FIRE, and detailed year-by-year projection.

Frequently Asked Questions

FIRE stands for Financial Independence, Retire Early. It's a movement focused on saving and investing aggressively so you can retire much earlier than the traditional age of 65.

The 4% rule comes from the Trinity Study, which found that retirees who withdraw 4% of their portfolio in the first year (adjusting for inflation) have a very high chance of not running out of money over 30 years.

Your FIRE number equals your annual expenses divided by your withdrawal rate. For example, if you spend $50,000/year and use a 4% withdrawal rate, your FIRE number is $1,250,000.

The S&P 500 has historically returned about 10% nominally, or 7% after inflation. Using 7% gives you a more conservative, inflation-adjusted projection.

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The Math Behind Financial Independence

The FIRE number — the amount you need invested to retire — comes from a landmark 1998 research paper from Trinity University, often called the Trinity Study. Researchers analyzed historical market data and found that a retiree who withdraws 4% of their initial portfolio in year one (adjusting for inflation each subsequent year) had a very high probability of their money lasting 30+ years. Flip that math: if you need $50,000/year to live, you need $50,000 / 0.04 = $1,250,000. That's your FIRE number — 25 times your annual expenses.

The Different Flavors of FIRE

The FIRE community has evolved well beyond a single target. Lean FIRE means retiring on under $40,000/year — a FIRE number around $1M. It requires a frugal lifestyle but is achievable much faster. Fat FIRE targets $100,000+ per year in retirement expenses — FIRE numbers of $2.5M and up. Barista FIRE is a middle path: retire from your main career but do part-time work to cover some expenses, reducing the portfolio you need. Coast FIRE means you have enough invested now that, if you stop contributing entirely, compound growth will get you to your FIRE number by traditional retirement age.

Why Savings Rate Matters More Than Income

The single most powerful variable in your FIRE timeline isn't your investment returns — it's your savings rate. Someone earning $80,000 and saving 15% ($12,000/year) needs roughly 37 years to reach financial independence. The same person saving 30% ($24,000/year) gets there in about 27 years — a decade earlier. And someone saving 50% needs only around 17 years. The math works because a higher savings rate both increases how much you're investing and decreases how much you need to cover — your FIRE number gets smaller as your lifestyle costs drop.

Sequence of Returns Risk

One risk the simple 4% rule doesn't fully capture is sequence of returns risk — the danger of a major market downturn early in your retirement. If the market drops 40% in your first two years of retirement and you're withdrawing 4% simultaneously, your portfolio may never fully recover. Many FIRE practitioners address this by holding 1-3 years of expenses in cash or bonds, using a flexible withdrawal rate (spending less in down years), or keeping a small income stream through part-time work in the early years.